Mapping the Trade Selection Process

The process of trading needs to start well before you focus in on the right side of a chart. Before you can take an overview, and focus on set-ups and signals, you need to have an ordered process where you are assured a market’s direction, and be able to quantify any directional shift which may have occurred since you were last on the screen. Something I heard a long time ago that I now know to be true, is the human brain is going to start to experience difficulty somewhere around the 5th or 6th simultaneous operation. Something else I’ve learned is that the brain can better serve us when we slow down and allow it to provide us with definition before we make an actionable decision.

Along with being able to project, the mind is an effective play-back device, which every now and again pauses in the now. As important as past price history is to the market and your own past is to you, and as influential as all the news events are, and your own expectations and aspirations, you have to have a process in place, where your decisions are based only on where the market is now. The chart below shows the flow of the decision making process which we will be teaching at trading-u.com.

The process of trade selection ends in one occurrence, a trigger, and one decision: yes, or no? Before it can come to that question though the trigger type needs to be categorized. For us it’s either trend, or a counter-trend. For “trend” let’s say there are 2 types of trend triggers, and for counter-trend triggers 4. Once the trigger is defined there is one last refinement before the trade is entered. There are 2 determinants based on a market’s stance, and momentum, where we would not take a signal. If the trade in consideration is not disqualified by one of those, the trade is entered.

In this process from “Overview” to “Enter Trade” we had 4 steps where the last two needed refinement. Keep in mind a step is not a decision, and a refinement is a definition. It’s interesting that for a “counter-trend trigger”, there are 4 definitions — no wonder 70% of counter-trend trades turn out to be losers when managed as trend trades.

http://trading-u.com/blog/index.php/archives/931

The process of trading needs to start well before you focus in on the right side of a chart. Before you can take an overview, and focus on set-ups and signals, you need to have an ordered process where you are assured a market’s direction, and be able to quantify any directional shift which may have occurred since you were last on the screen.

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